Yes or No, bet.

About the middle of gambling and investment, ambiguous boundaries and innovation

Startup Kalshi

Now neither stock nor cryptocurrency. Startup Kalshi bets YES or NO on a variety of ideas, from minor themes, such as whether New York will exceed 80 degrees, to some Americans, or Turkey to join the EU by November, by November. It is an online trading platform.


It was prominent at Winter 2019 of Y Combinator, one of the famous VCs. Co -founders Tarek Mansour and Luana Lala have started Kalshi to develop and get intuition about the value surrounding unexplored information. For reference, Kalshi means ‘everything’ in Arabic. Anyone can interpret it as a platform that can bet on everything that is interesting. Two co -founders are MIT, Mansour, Mansour, Master of Deep Learning Science, Master of Dip Learning Science, and LALA is a computer cognitive science master in computer science. Mansour started Kalshi in 2016 as an easy and inexpensive way for investors and companies to hedge at risk when working as a Goldman Sachs stock derivatives intern. It is a democratization of Hess Jing … It seems that this idea has been focused on this idea, starting with the question of why Mansour is wandering from a financial company to hedge British Brexit.

Kalshi was approved in November last year by the Commodity Future Trading Commission. CEO Tarek Mansour said, “It means the transition of a paradigm in the financial market and has opened a new chapter in US financial history that can hedge and alleviate everyday dangers.” In February this year, he has collected $ 30 million from famous VC Sequoia Capital, online trading company Charles Schwap, and KKR’s chairman Henry Kravis.

Isn’t it a gambling?

In 1848, grain futures were born, and transactions were expanded to agricultural products and financial derivatives. In the era of social media we live in, we are confused about whether it is an asset class, and it is confused whether it is a legitimate gambling to seek fun by providing an event contract as an asset class and providing an event contract.

Given the strict restrictions on sports betting, we need to think about what’s betting that Kalshi’s bet is different from sports betting. In the case of gambling, casinos or houses are adjusted to gain profit regardless of the results. That’s why gamblers have no choice but to lose, and Kalshi bets on event contracts but is transparent. …

Kalshi operation principle

First of all, all the money you bet must be in cash and you do not allow credit loans. If you answer each question, it has a very simple rules that give $ 1 and $ 0 if they are wrong. Of course, there is a transaction fee. Betting prices for YES/NO for events fluctuate every moment. For example, when asked, “Will the indoor restaurant close in New York?” The answer “Yes” soared to 26 cents, and since the price has fallen again.

There are undering assets in the same form as a general futures contract, and there is a closing date and maturity of the contract. You can sell it until you close it, or you may be rewarded for the expiration date. You can bet in the volume that can be contracted for the question.

The trust of the numbers, the sense of stability due to regulation

The most important difference between gambling and investment is whether it is reliable in addition to the house advantage or whether there is a regulatory agency. To be trusted, you must be able to be based on data, not randomly probability, and that there are a lot of prohibitions and constraints.

Complex financial instruments, such as subprime mortgages, are allowed and sold in the market, but I don’t know why these events contracts that can be intuitively hedgeed like gambling. In any case, it is true that this idea is new in this age, when complex interests are interlocked. It is also a simple Yes/no -game that mathematics, psychology, and cognitive science are involved to make it look 메가슬롯 like a healthy investment product.

Michael Seibel, a Y Combinator CEO, trusted Kalshi, saying, “I think there is an innovation that can bring to this industry by creating a safety mechanism to expand the scope of bet and to fight addiction.” As important as the user’s trust is to comply with regulations, and if Kalshi is approved by CFTC and is currently in beta service, he is expected to overcome regulations and create innovative services.

Fun to see public opinion

I thought that futures/options were a high -risk investment that only experts were, and I didn’t think about the hedge that the general public could do. On the other hand, companies that have these similar ideas have not been approved by the regulatory agency.

People rarely take out their hearts in an anonymous poll, and they pack themselves with different Persona in virtual spaces such as Instagram and Facebook. But can it be true if you have to invest money in your opinion? Kalshi acts as an exchange dealing with event contracts, but I think it might be a space to read public opinion. It’s fun to see public opinion through Kalshi rather than investing.

Can we establish this idea in our country?

The reason why a plan to make a huge back money is on the reef if you make a box thing

When creating a depopulated region, one -third of the parliamentarians is involved.

Because there is a deficit local line, JNR must be privatized.


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Isn’t it! !

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